Forecusting and Risk;

Forecusting and Risk;

Presentation

Report style

The answers are to exercise that are expected to evidence the sourcing of relevant reference material, critically analysing the key concepts of the reference and then

applying the material to the tasks listed below. It requires the use of appropriate references to support your work. The use of references that provide generic

information without any critical analysis will be viewed unfavourably.
You may use any clear and open style font, between 10-12 point size with single or 1.5 spacing.

Requirements
Submit your work in a Microsoft Word format. (NOT ALLOWED PDF)
Referencing skills
• The application of APA referencing
Recommended reading / resources
Additional relevant readings are provided in complete form within the subject material. Supplementary readings may also be referred to in the proposed forum

discussions and will be posted on the Subject Interact site when appropriate.
Suggested additional readings include:

– Bach, J. (1994). Jonathan Livingston Seagull. London: Harper Collins.
– Bennett, R. (2004). The Australian stock market: A guide for players, planners and
procrastinators (8th ed.). Sydney: ABC Books.
– Bernstein, P. L. (1996). Against the Gods; the remarkable story of risk. New York: John
Wiley and Sons.
– Caplan, D. L. (1995). The new options advantage: gaining a trading edge over the markets.
(rev.ed.). New York: McGraw-Hill.
– Hardaker, J. B., Huirne, R. B. M., & Anderson, J. R. (1997). Coping with risk in agriculture.
New York: CAB International.
– Krause, M. (1995). Rural property planning: Risk management. Inkata Press (Butterworth-
Heinemann).
– Rejda, G. (1998). Principles of risk management and insurance (6th ed.). Reading Mass:
Addison Wesley Longman.
– Wilson, J., & Keating, B. (2002). Business forecasting. (4th ed.). New York: McGraw Hill.
– Winston, W. (1998). Financial models using simulation and optimisatio. New York: Palisade,
Newfield.
– ASX. Understanding warrants, an explanatory booklet. ASX Derivatives Division Sydney.
Retrieved from http://www.asx.com.au
– ASX. Understanding options trading, an explanatory booklet. ASX Derivatives Division.
Retrieved from http://www.asx.com.au
– ASX. Getting started in options, an explanatory booklet. ASX Derivatives Division. Retrieved
from http://www.asx.com.au
-knight 1921
– AS/NZ ISO 31000:2009 Risk management principles and guidelines.

Question 1 – (2150 Words)
a.    Compare and contrast at least three different definitions of risk. Draw some conclusions about the meaning of risk by proposing your own definition of ‘risk’.
(25 % marks for question 1)

b.    Analyse how business risk differs from risk in general. Evaluate the components of business risk. Using various academic/theoretical viewpoints argue and

justify a case for (or against) any one individual component having a higher priority over one or more components.
(25 % marks for question 1)

c.    Explain decision making heuristics, bias and risk preference. Assess how the existence of decision making heuristics, bias and risk preference impacts the

analysis and management of risk.
(50 % of marks for question 1)

This question is designed to develop your understanding of the key concepts of risk. Requires you to generate a discussion about the key concepts of risk, the types of

risk, the link between risk and uncertainty, the link between risk and change, and the impact of human emotion on risk.

The Questions are an exercise that are expected to evidence the sourcing of relevant reference material, critically analysing the key concepts of the reference and

then applying the material to the tasks listed below. It requires the use of appropriate references to support your work. The use of references that provide generic

information without any critical analysis will be viewed unfavourably.

Question 2 – (2500 Words)
a.    What is qualitative and quantitative analysis? (50% of marks for question 2)
b.    Please evaluate the following question. Your evaluation requires you to prepare and defend a chosen position:
‘Knowledge can be divided into uncertainty and perfect knowledge. Where does risk fit into this spectrum?’
(Hint: Evaluate the measurable component of risk and where it sits on the spectrum)
(50% of marks for question 2)
Provide a critical analysis of a statement regarding the key concepts of risk and risk analysis. This task is an exercise that is expected to evidence the sourcing of

relevant reference material, critically analysing the key concepts of the reference and then applying the material to the tasks listed below. It requires the use of

appropriate references to support your work. The use of references that provide generic information without any critical analysis will be viewed unfavourably.

Question 3 – (2500 Words)
a.    Consider the following statement:
‘Risk managers should mainly focus on the consequences of an event rather than its likelihood as these consequences determine the impact on the business.’
Examine the interaction between likelihood and consequences and develop an argument both for and against the statement. Your commentary should contain a critical

argument with a brief introduction, stating where you stand and how you argue your case, the two cases (for and against) and then finish with a conclusion. Include an

analysis of the role of a business risk manager offer some conclusions as to how prominent the role of the business risk manager should be within the wider management

of the business, i.e. when compared with other management functions such as strategy, governance, product development, marketing, finance, operations, etc. Justify how

you reached your conclusions.
(30% of marks for question 3)

b.    Compare and contrast the risk strategies of retain, transfer or avoid risk. Your discussion should include the key considerations a risk manager should take

into account when making such decisions (e.g. cost versus benefit framework).
(35% of marks for question 3)

a.    Provide a reflective summary of your own perception of risk and how your understanding of risk, risk analysis, and risk management has developed over the

session. Identify what you consider to be the three critical components of risk and risk management.
(35% of marks for question 3)

This question is designed to allow you to introduce the concept of minimising risk and/or transferring risk to a third party. In addition bring together the work you

have done during the session to a conclusion. You will be required to undertake a reflection of the subject that includes commentary on your risk preference and the

development of skills in risk analysis and risk management over the session.

All questions are expected to evidence the sourcing of relevant reference material, critically analysing the key concepts of the reference and then applying the

material to the tasks listed below. It requires the use of appropriate references to support your work. The use of references that provide generic information without

any critical analysis will be viewed unfavourably. The task on your selected problem should also assess the risk implications of your decision.

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